Hopefully the headline above triggered a beloved song by Schoolhouse Rock about the strenuous legislative procedure that takes place on Capitol Hill. Today the Senate confers over President Trumps’ ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ as the final stop before it may reach the Oval Office. As I’m currently sitting just a few stoplights from the Hill, there is immense tension in the air as Congress inches closer to a decision.
THE SENATE
Politicians are working round-the-clock to amend the bill to reach a vote before the July 4th deadline hits. The Hill reports that the bill only needs to pass by a simple-majority vote complying with the Byrd Rule, which restricts what the Senate may include in reconciliation legislation.
The chamber had voted prior that extending 2017 tax cuts may be considered deficit neutral, leading to compliance with the rule.
As it stands, Republicans can afford a maximum of three “no’s” to maintain a simple majority.
OPPOSITION
After voicing his dissent of the bill’s provision to cut Medicaid health care, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced he will not be running for reelection following the end of this term. Alongside him, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky is said to “oppose legislation on final passage.”
AP News reports Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Shumer saying that Democrats will “bring amendment after amendment after amendment to the floor.”
The Capitol seems to be paddling through choppy waters as spurts of opposition continue to appear on the Senate floor.
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE ESTIMATE
In review of the bill, the CBO estimates that it will add around $3.3 trillion in budget deficits. This will allegedly happen if the Senate passes their version to reduce federal revenues by $4.5 trillion and reduce spending by $1.2 trillion.
Many raise concerns that the Senate’s reconciliation bill will further widen the deficit “by a half trillion dollars more than the version of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act that passed the House.”
Axios continues to say that the bill would “result in higher borrowing costs for the federal government.”
The White House responded to the CBO estimate on Sunday.
“The One Big Beautiful Bill reduces deficits by over $2 trillion by increasing economic growth and cutting waste, fraud, and abuse across government programs at an unprecedented rate.”
The article directly called the CBO the “Crooked Budget Office”, saying that it has misread economic consequences that will result from not extending Trump Tax Cuts.
WHAT IS ON THE LINE?
The bill is surely a big one. Let’s keep in mind the key items.
- An extension on Social Security tax breaks
- A tightening on eligibility requirements for Medicaid
- Increased cap on Salt tax (increasing the “deduction limit for state & local taxes”)
- Requiring states to contribute more to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
- An end to taxes on tips and overtime pay
- An end to federal clean energy tax credits
THE PEOPLE’S VOICE
Fox News conducted a poll a few weeks back, asking voters how they felt about the bill as it had just passed the House. They recorded 73% of Republicans were in favor, 73% of Independents opposed, and 89% of Democrats also opposed.
Pew Research Center conducted a similar survey earlier in June. They found that overall, half of American voters oppose the legislation, 29% favor it, and 21% aren’t completely sure where they stand.
When narrowing the survey to depict Republican and Democrat stances, it found that 19% of Republicans oppose it and 80% of Democrats likewise oppose it.
The variance of support for the bill is equally tossed among the public as it is among Congress – revealing a very intense period for the country.
