A big shift is predicted to take place in the U.S. red meat industry. For the first time in 75 years, the industry is expected to produce more PORK than BEEF in the second quarter. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) has released its forecast for commercial beef in 2015 to be 23.8 billion pounds with pork set to reach 24.5 billion pounds. The estimate for beef is 185 million pounds below its June estimates.

The report says second-quarter total red meat and poultry production are below earlier estimates “because lower beef and turkey production will likely offset higher broiler and pork production.”

Although dairy cow slaughter is slightly above a year ago, the ERS says it has not offset reduced beef cow slaughter. It says the decrease in beef cow slaughter is because of low cow inventories and better U.S. pasture conditions. Hog litter size and inventories have rebounded. Turkey and egg production are lower because of impacts from the nation’s outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian flu (HPAI). Although broiler production hasn’t been affected, trade in all poultry products has declined greatly because of import bans due to avian flu.