Expect a slow fire season this winter.  Much of the state received above normal rainfall this year, helping to suppress fires and increase the moisture level—also increasing the amount of grass or fuel.

More fuels coupled with dry weather normally causes concern during the winter months since this combination supports significant fire activity, helping spread wildfires quickly across grassy areas. Although we have more fuels, we don’t have the dry weather which reduces the threat.

Forecasted El Niño conditions may hinder wildfires this season. El Niño is a weather cycle that occurs every three to five years. It deviates from normal surface temperatures, causing warmer temperatures and wetter-than-average conditions across Texas.

“With El Niño in place, precipitation chances are expected to increase during the winter months. This would help limit wildfires this season,” Tom Spencer, Texas A&M Forest Service predictive services department head said. “However, with the surge of grass growing in the plains regions of the state, there could be opportunities for an occasional period of fire activity.”

Although a rainier season is expected, Spencer urges residents to still use care through the winter months and limit activities that could accidentally start a wildfire.

TFS offers these tips for Texans to stay safe this holiday season:

• Check for and obey burn bans and fireworks restrictions.
• When and where outdoor burning is allowed, keep the fire small, never leave it unattended and remove leaves and other materials from the area surrounding the fire. Avoid lighting piles on windy days.
• Keep water nearby in case a fire starts. A spark or burning ember can ignite dry, fine-textured fuels like grass and weeds.
• Adhere to all county and city fireworks laws.
• Use only with adult supervision and only outdoors away from dry grass and buildings.
• Read firework labels and use only as directed. Do not alter the products.
• Keep water, wet towels and a garden hose nearby.
• Allow fireworks to cool completely before handling and discard them into a bucket of water.
• Remove your natural Christmas tree soon after the holidays and consider community tree recycling projects. Christmas trees can be ground up for mulch or provide shelter for birds and other wildlife.
• Dispose of wrapping paper, boxes and other holiday waste by recycling, when practical. Burn paper and cardboard in a burn barrel or other fire-proof receptacle topped by a metal screen or grill, as winds can carry embers over long distances.

The full winter weather outlook is now available, and daily fire weather forecasts can be found at the Texas Interagency Coordination Center webpage.